Barack Obama has surpassed the number of delegates necessary to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for president. His remarkable accomplishment is being celebrated around the world as excitement is building in anticipation of a Democratic sweep in November. Fed up with George W. Bush, the war, and now assaulted by expensive gas, food, and a struggling economy, Americans are eager for change, exactly what Obama personifies. The summer conventions and fall campaign are mere formalities. Barack and Michelle will be our next first couple.
I don’t want to be a party pooper, but Senator Obama’s coronation may be derailed by his very next move, a decision determining the outcome of an election almost five months away. Selecting the right running-mate has never been more important.
Under normal circumstances, candidates for vice president have no more than a 1% effect on voting. Balancing the ticket geographically or aiming at a specific voting block usually pales in importance compared to the positions and popularity of numero uno. This time and for the Democrats only, all that may change. You see, Hillary Clinton is in the mix, and her presence alters everything.
Poor Obama is truly in a pickle because he cannot possibly know whether it is best to have Hillary as a running mate. Some see Obama/Clinton as the dream ticket, uniting a badly fractured party and pulling votes from all corners of the country. Obama is said to appeal to the young and intellectuals, while Hillary commands respect among women and working class whites. Such a combination will sweep John McCain into the dust bin of history, plopped down alongside Bob Dole and Gerald Ford. Some of Obama’s advisers must be pushing this scenario.
On the other hand, Barack has thus far sold himself as the candidate of change, a new breed of politician free from the bitter partisanship that has dominated American politics for too long. He cannot discard “Change You Can Believe In” now or ever. Conversely, Hillary has constantly reminded voters of the good old 1990s, promising to reignite those seemingly distant days of balanced budgets and pre-9/11 innocence. Moreover, with Hillary comes Bill, baggage that would slow down the Space Shuttle. Picking Hillary as V.P. would betray Obama’s claim to eschew the past and partisanship. Worse, voters who like Obama may not be able to stand Clinton and vice versa. An Obama/Clinton ticket might provide Americans with too many reasons to say no.
Then there are the angry females. Many women were convinced that this was their year as Hillary would finally break the ultimate glass ceiling. They are outraged that the Democratic Party in general, and Obama — a Man! — in particular would treat Ms. Clinton so shabbily. Offering Hillary the second job may be the last straw, perceived as a deliberate insult prompting millions of women to vote for McCain or, more likely, just stay home in November. On the other hand, not including Hillary on the ticket may prove to be an even bigger affront. Obama must be thinking, “What’s a guy to do?”
All of this makes Obama’s choice of a running mate much weightier than it normally would be. After defeating the vaunted Clinton machine to secure the nomination, Barack may still succumb because of Hillary Clinton. For Senator Barack Obama, the first black person ever nominated for president by a major party, the way to the oval office is still littered with potholes named Bill and Hillary.
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Posted by Jerry Pomeroy in Campaign 2008, Video